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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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