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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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