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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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