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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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