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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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