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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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