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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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