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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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