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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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