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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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