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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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