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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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