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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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