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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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