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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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