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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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