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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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