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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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