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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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