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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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