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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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