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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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