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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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