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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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