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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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