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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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