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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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