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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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