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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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