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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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