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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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