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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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