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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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