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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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