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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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