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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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