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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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