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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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