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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
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