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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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