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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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