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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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