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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 09 January 17
FFA SUPRAMAX: Q1 AND Q2 TRADING UP TO $7100 WHILE CAL17 PRINTED $7250 - FIS
Capesize
Sentiment has swung quickly on capes and although there appears to be a very short list for open tonnage in the Atlantic Feb dates appea ...
Monday, 09 January 17
COAL MARKETS WERE UNEXPECTEDLY ONE OF THE STRONGEST PERFORMERS OF 2016 - SGX
COALspot.com: Coal markets were unexpectedly one of the strongest performers of 2016, with domestic production restrictions in China as well as sup ...
Monday, 09 January 17
THE INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SLIDES AFTER THE RECENT RALLY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price slides in January 2017 after the recent rally. The government declared benchmark prices for Indone ...
Friday, 06 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 12.4 MMST; DOWN 18.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.4 million short ton ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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