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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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