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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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