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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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