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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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