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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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