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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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