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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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