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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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