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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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