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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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