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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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